The Normal Distribution
Key Terms
- The normal distribution N(μ, σ²) is symmetric and bell-shaped, centred at μ
- Approximately 68% of data lies within 1σ of μ; 95% within 2σ; 99.7% within 3σ
- The standard normal Z ~ N(0, 1) is obtained by the transformation Z = (X − μ) / σ
- P(X < x) is found using CAS: normCdf(−∞, x, μ, σ)
- P(a < X < b) = normCdf(a, b, μ, σ) on CAS
- The total area under the normal curve = 1; the curve never touches the x-axis
Z-score: Z = (X − μ) / σ
68–95–99.7 rule:
P(μ − σ < X < μ + σ) ≈ 0.68
P(μ − 2σ < X < μ + 2σ) ≈ 0.95
P(μ − 3σ < X < μ + 3σ) ≈ 0.997
By symmetry: P(X < μ) = P(X > μ) = 0.5
Method 1 (Z-score):
Z = (53 − 50) / 3 = 1
P(X < 53) = P(Z < 1) ≈ 0.8413
Method 2 (CAS):
normCdf(−1099, 53, 50, 3) = 0.8413
σ = √225 = 15
Z1 = (85 − 100)/15 = −1; Z2 = (115 − 100)/15 = 1
P(85 < X < 115) = P(−1 < Z < 1) ≈ 0.6827
(Or by CAS: normCdf(85, 115, 100, 15) = 0.6827)
The Shape and Properties of the Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is the most important continuous probability distribution in statistics. Its probability density function creates the famous bell-shaped curve. Any normally distributed variable X is described by two parameters: the mean μ (centre of the bell) and the variance σ² (spread of the bell). We write X ~ N(μ, σ²).
Key properties of the normal distribution:
- Perfectly symmetric about the mean μ
- The mean, median and mode are all equal to μ
- The curve extends to ±∞ but approaches zero rapidly
- Total area under the curve = 1
- Increasing σ makes the curve wider and flatter; decreasing σ makes it taller and narrower
The 68–95–99.7 Rule
For any normal distribution X ~ N(μ, σ²):
- About 68% of values lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean: P(μ−σ < X < μ+σ) ≈ 0.6827
- About 95% of values lie within 2 standard deviations: P(μ−2σ < X < μ+2σ) ≈ 0.9545
- About 99.7% of values lie within 3 standard deviations: P(μ−3σ < X < μ+3σ) ≈ 0.9973
This rule allows quick mental estimates without CAS. For example, if X ~ N(70, 16) (so σ = 4), then about 95% of values lie between 62 and 78.
The Standard Normal Distribution and Z-Scores
The standard normal distribution Z ~ N(0, 1) has mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Any normal distribution can be converted to the standard normal using the standardisation formula:
Z = (X − μ) / σ
The Z-score tells you how many standard deviations a value is from the mean. A Z-score of +2 means the value is 2 standard deviations above the mean; Z = −1.5 means 1.5 standard deviations below.
Example: Heights of adults are normally distributed with μ = 175 cm and σ = 8 cm. A person is 191 cm tall. Their Z-score is (191 − 175)/8 = 2. This person is 2 standard deviations above average.
Finding Probabilities Using CAS
On your CAS calculator:
- P(X < b): normCdf(−1099, b, μ, σ)
- P(X > a): normCdf(a, 1099, μ, σ)
- P(a < X < b): normCdf(a, b, μ, σ)
Important: Enter σ (standard deviation) in CAS, not σ² (variance). If given X ~ N(50, 16), then μ = 50 and σ = √16 = 4.
Using Symmetry
Because the normal distribution is symmetric about μ:
- P(X > μ + k) = P(X < μ − k) for any k > 0
- P(X < a) + P(X > a) = 1, so P(X > a) = 1 − P(X < a)
- P(Z < −z) = P(Z > z) = 1 − P(Z < z)
These symmetry properties reduce the number of distinct calculations needed.
Mastery Practice
- X ~ N(20, 4). Find: (a) μ and σ (b) P(X < 22) using CAS (c) P(X > 20)
- For X ~ N(50, 100), use the 68–95–99.7 rule to find: (a) P(40 < X < 60) (b) P(X > 70)
- Standardise the following values from X ~ N(30, 25): (a) x = 35 (b) x = 22 (c) x = 30
- X ~ N(0, 1). Use CAS to find: (a) P(Z < 1.5) (b) P(Z > −0.8) (c) P(−1 < Z < 2)
- The heights of a group of adults are normally distributed with mean 172 cm and standard deviation 6 cm. Find the probability that a randomly selected adult is:
- (a) Shorter than 165 cm
- (b) Taller than 180 cm
- (c) Between 166 cm and 178 cm tall
- X ~ N(45, 64). Find P(38 < X < 55). Show your working including the Z-scores used.
- Explain why P(X < μ) = 0.5 for any normal distribution. Use a diagram to support your explanation.
- A normal distribution has P(X < 70) = 0.8413 and σ = 5. Use the Z-score equation to find the mean μ.
- The mass of avocados at a supermarket is normally distributed with μ = 280 g and σ = 20 g.
- (a) An avocado is chosen at random. Find the probability its mass is between 260 g and 320 g.
- (b) Avocados under 250 g are sold at a discount. What percentage of avocados are sold at a discount?
- (c) If 500 avocados are in stock, how many would you expect to be over 310 g?
- Two factories produce light bulbs. Factory A produces bulbs with lifetimes X ~ N(1200, 10000) hours and Factory B produces bulbs with lifetimes Y ~ N(1150, 3600) hours. An individual bulb is selected at random from each factory.
- (a) Find P(X > 1300) and P(Y > 1300).
- (b) Which factory is more likely to produce a bulb that lasts over 1300 hours? Justify your answer.
- (c) Find P(Y < 1000). What does this suggest about Factory B’s consistency?