★ Topic Review — Probability
This review covers all three lessons: Events, Sets and Venn Diagrams; Probability Rules; and Conditional Probability and Independence. Questions increase in difficulty.
-
Fluency — Set notation and Venn diagrams
In a class of 25 students, 15 play sport (S), 12 play a musical instrument (M), and 7 do both.
- (a) Draw a Venn diagram and fill in the count in each region.
- (b) Find P(S only).
- (c) Find P(S ∪ M).
- (d) Find P(S′ ∩ M′) (neither).
-
Fluency — Complement rule
- (a) P(A) = 0.38. Find P(A′).
- (b) The probability of NOT winning a prize is 7/8. Find P(winning a prize).
- (c) P(A′) = 0.45. P(B) = 0.30. A and B are mutually exclusive. Find P(A′ ∩ B′).
-
Fluency — Addition rule
- (a) P(A) = 0.55, P(B) = 0.40, P(A ∩ B) = 0.20. Find P(A ∪ B).
- (b) P(A ∪ B) = 0.80, P(A) = 0.50, P(B) = 0.45. Find P(A ∩ B).
- (c) A and B are mutually exclusive with P(A) = 2P(B) and P(A ∪ B) = 0.6. Find P(A) and P(B).
-
Fluency — Two-way table
150 people surveyed. Rows: Employed(E)/Unemployed(U). Columns: City(C)/Regional(R). E/C=54, E/R=36, U/C=30, U/R=30. Total=150.
- (a) Find P(Employed).
- (b) Find P(City ∩ Unemployed).
- (c) Find P(Employed ∪ City).
-
Fluency — Conditional probability basics
- (a) P(A ∩ B) = 0.18, P(B) = 0.6. Find P(A|B).
- (b) P(A|B) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.35. Find P(A ∩ B).
- (c) A bag has 6 red and 4 blue marbles. One red marble is removed. What is the probability the next marble drawn is red?
-
Understanding — Three-set Venn diagram
80 students surveyed about social media use. Facebook(F): 45, Instagram(I): 38, Twitter(T): 22. F∩I: 18, F∩T: 12, I∩T: 10. F∩I∩T: 5.
- (a) Find n(F ∪ I ∪ T).
- (b) Find the number using none of the three.
- (c) Find P(Facebook only).
- (d) Find P(exactly two platforms).
-
Understanding — Testing independence
A survey finds: P(Owns a car) = 0.6, P(Has a full-time job) = 0.7, P(Owns a car ∩ Full-time job) = 0.42.
- (a) Are “Owns a car” and “Full-time job” independent? Show your working.
- (b) Find P(Owns a car | Full-time job).
- (c) Find P(Full-time job | Owns a car).
- (d) Interpret the independence result in context.
-
Understanding — Tree diagram
A box has 5 green and 3 yellow balls. Two are drawn without replacement.
- (a) Draw a tree diagram with all probabilities on each branch.
- (b) Find P(same colour both draws).
- (c) Find P(at least one green).
- (d) Find P(1st is green | 2nd is yellow).
-
Problem Solving — Medical screening
Challenge. 2% of athletes use a prohibited substance (D). A drug test has P(positive|D)=0.98 and P(negative|D′)=0.95. An athlete tests positive.- (a) Using a 10 000-person table, find P(positive test).
- (b) Find P(D | positive) — the probability the athlete actually used the substance given a positive result.
- (c) Should we automatically conclude a positive-testing athlete is guilty? Explain using your answer to (b).
-
Problem Solving — Combined probability reasoning
Challenge.- (a) P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4. A and B are independent. Find P(A′ ∩ B), P(A ∩ B′), and P(A′ ∩ B′). Verify all four regions of the Venn diagram sum to 1.
- (b) A and B are mutually exclusive with P(A)=0.3 and P(B)=0.4. C is independent of both A and B with P(C)=0.5. Find P(A ∩ C) and P((A∪B) ∩ C).
- (c) Cards are drawn from a standard deck. Find P(3rd card is an Ace | first two cards are not Aces). Show full working.
-
Problem Solving — Extended Venn diagram
Challenge. P(A)=0.5, P(B)=0.4, P(C)=0.3. P(A∩B)=0.2, P(A∩C)=0.15, P(B∩C)=0.12, P(A∩B∩C)=0.08.- (a) Find P(A ∪ B ∪ C).
- (b) Find the probability of exactly one event occurring.
- (c) Find P(A only).